2026-03-14

Forecast bands that survive a board question

By Elliot Nam

Board members often hear bands as excuses unless you anchor them to decisions. Pair every band with a trigger: if upper band hits, approve expedited freight; if lower band hits, pause paid acquisition for two weeks. Triggers should already be agreed with ops before the meeting.

Use historical error, not vibes, to set band width. A simple rolling MAPE on the last four quarters is enough to start. If your catalog is young, widen bands and say so. Youthful catalogs deserve wider honesty.

Visuals matter. Keep charts dark-on-light for print, and avoid rainbow ramps that imply false precision. A single median line with a shaded band outperforms spaghetti charts in board packs.

Graduates of the forecasting sprint often adopt a one-page addendum called Assumptions at Risk. List three assumptions that would collapse the forecast if wrong. It is not comfortable, but it is credible.

Forecasting · Leadership